Roman Krückel

Zusammenfassung

Satellites operating in Very Low Earth Orbit (VLEO), typically below 450 km, benefit from high-resolution Earth observation and low-latency communication. However, these benefits are challenged by a highly dynamic residual atmosphere that makes aerodynamic forces and torques the dominant non-conservative perturbations. This paper provides a comprehensive, multidisciplinary overview of the sources, modeling, and impacts of uncertainty in VLEO aerodynamic modeling. We identify key drivers of uncertainty across four domains: thermospheric density, space weather input, thermospheric wind, and aerodynamic force and torque coefficients. The work discusses advanced stochastic modeling techniques, such as modified Ornstein-Uhlenbeck-Process (mOUP), to capture the heteroscedastic and temporally correlated nature of these errors. Furthermore, we examine systemic impacts on attitude and orbit control, as well as Precise Orbit Determination (POD) and mission operations, including ground station acquisition and station-keeping reliability. This cross-disciplinary synthesis serves as a road map for the development of robust VLEO spacecraft. We conclude that because VLEO uncertainties are inherently coupled across different scales, only an integrated modeling strategy can effectively mitigate risks such as actuator saturation or unexpected orbital decay. Addressing these factors is key to extending the lifetime and feasibility of missions in this altitude regime.